Investor decision playbooksPrompt 157
Test investment asymmetry
Turns a compelling upside story into explicit downside, probability and liquidity assumptions.
Ready to ask
Prompt text
“For a proposed [investment], make me define a base case, upside case and permanent-loss case in dollars. Compare the upside and downside with my total net worth and liquidity needs, then test how sensitive the apparent asymmetry is to my probabilities and exit assumptions. If I cannot distinguish permanent-loss risk from ordinary price uncertainty, identify the missing research instead of approving the framing.”
Context Silvia can use
Proposed investment, portfolio, net worth, liquidity and user-supplied scenario assumptions.
What a strong answer includes
Asymmetry table with sensitivity and missing research.
Useful follow-ups
- Which downside is truly permanent?
- Stress-test the exit assumption.
Ask Silvia about your actual financial life
Connect the relevant accounts, add the goal or constraint that matters, and ask Silvia to show the evidence and assumptions behind the answer.
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