Put it on RadarPrompt 138
Stress-test a contrarian thesis
Converts conviction into falsifiable evidence and a repeatable review process.
Ready to ask
Prompt text
“My thesis is: [thesis]. Build the strongest case that the consensus is right and I am wrong. Estimate the relevant historical base rate where credible comparisons exist, identify early evidence that would weaken my thesis, and define observable review criteria with me. Then create a Radar that runs on the 1st of each month at 8am and reports whether those assumptions are strengthening, weakening or still unproven.”
Context Silvia can use
User thesis, market history, filings, public research and recurring Radar results.
What a strong answer includes
Steel-manned countercase, review criteria and monthly status.
Useful follow-ups
- Which assumption is least testable?
- What would change the consensus view?
Ask Silvia about your actual financial life
Connect the relevant accounts, add the goal or constraint that matters, and ask Silvia to show the evidence and assumptions behind the answer.
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