Investor decision playbooksPrompt 154
Run a Kelly sizing check
Makes subjective odds and payoff assumptions explicit before using them to justify size.
Ready to ask
Prompt text
“For [position], ask me to provide my estimated probability of success, expected gain if right and loss if wrong. Calculate full and half Kelly fractions from my inputs, compare them with my actual portfolio weight and show sensitivity to less favorable probabilities and payoffs. Explain why uncertain, correlated investment outcomes make Kelly an educational sizing reference rather than a recommended allocation.”
Context Silvia can use
User-supplied probabilities and payoffs, actual position weight and portfolio context.
What a strong answer includes
Kelly range, sensitivity table and practical limitations.
Useful follow-ups
- Stress-test my probability estimate.
- Account for correlated positions.
Ask Silvia about your actual financial life
Connect the relevant accounts, add the goal or constraint that matters, and ask Silvia to show the evidence and assumptions behind the answer.
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