Investor decision playbooksPrompt 143
Run an investment pre-mortem
Uses inversion to make position-specific failure modes concrete before they happen.
Ready to ask
Prompt text
“Assume it is three years from now and [holding] has been a serious investment mistake. Write the three most plausible explanations using company and portfolio evidence. For each scenario, estimate the effect on my portfolio, total net worth and financial-independence range at the holding's current weight. Clearly label scenario assumptions rather than presenting them as forecasts.”
Context Silvia can use
Holding size, portfolio, company research, downside scenarios and retirement assumptions.
What a strong answer includes
Three failure scenarios with portfolio and goal impact.
Useful follow-ups
- Which failure mode is hardest to monitor?
- What evidence would reduce this risk?
Ask Silvia about your actual financial life
Connect the relevant accounts, add the goal or constraint that matters, and ask Silvia to show the evidence and assumptions behind the answer.
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