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Tech bounced first, then lagged, after financials' past big leads over tech

Median forward total return after a 21-session XLF-minus-XLK spread of at least 15 percentage points. 22 signals since 1999, separated by at least 21 sessions; 21 eligible at 21/63 sessions and 20 at 126/252 sessions. Horizons: 1/3/6/12 months = 21/63/126/252 trading sessions

Median forward total return for XLF and XLK at 1, 3, 6 and 12 months after 22 signals from 1999 through November 2, 2026, when XLF beat XLK by at least 15 points over 21 sessions, with XLF at +1.6%, +1.5%, +0.3% and +3.4% and XLK at +3.5%, +7.4%, -13.2% and -11.7%.
Source: Yahoo Finance; author calculations on XLF, XLK since December 1998.
Financials and tech

Silvia Insights research desk

In past episodes like this one, tech's first-month lead held for the year only half the time.

From the October 8 to November 6, 2026 closes, the financials fund XLF returned +5.4% and the tech fund XLK returned −16.7%. That is a 22.1-point gap in 21 trading sessions.

Since December 1998, a 21-session gap of 15 points or more in financials' favor has shown up 22 times. A month later, XLK's median return was +3.5% versus +1.6% for XLF.

Six months out, the medians were −13.2% for XLK and +0.3% for XLF. At twelve months, XLF led in 13 of 20 cases.

Fourteen of the 22 signals came from 1999 to 2002 and 2008. The sample is small and is not a forecast.

In this sample, tech's early lead did not last.

This chart comes from a Silvia Insights research report. Members received the full report earlier this week.

Research is for informational purposes and does not constitute personalized investment advice.

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