Roku returned 64% over the past year while Netflix lost 45%
Total shareholder return, trailing twelve months through the October 20, 2026 close
Silvia Insights research desk
Wall Street has already picked the winners of the ad shift and Netflix isn't one of them.
Over the last 12 months, Roku returned 64% and Alphabet 33%, while Netflix lost 45%, the worst of the six stocks charted below.
In five guidance-driven Netflix selloffs from 2016 to 2022, the stock averaged about a 50% gain a year later, but from its October 22, 2025 post-earnings close to this October 20 it fell another 38%.
That evening, Netflix cut its 2026 ad-revenue forecast to about $2.7 billion from about $3 billion.
In the second quarter, YouTube ad revenue grew 13% and Meta's grew 27%.
The rebound playbook only works if Netflix closes the ad gap, and this week's forecast cut says it hasn't.
This chart comes from a new Silvia Insights research report. Members received the full analysis earlier this week, including the actionable trade ideas, risks and what comes next.
Research is for informational purposes and does not constitute personalized investment advice.
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