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Health care only beat tech after selloffs when tech earnings broke

Median XLV-minus-XLK forward return after XLK falls 8% in five trading days. 38 events, 1998 to 2026

Bar chart of the median XLV-minus-XLK total return 1, 3, 6 and 12 months after XLK fell 8% in five trading days, 38 events in data from 1998 to 2026, with 2000-2002 at -2, +9, +16 and +30 points and all other selloffs at -2, -6, -16 and -28 points
Source: Silvia Insights analysis of XLK and XLV daily total returns, yfinance.
Health care

Silvia Insights research desk

A selloff in tech has rarely been good news for health care on its own.

In 14 sharp tech selloffs from April 2000 to December 2002, health care beat tech by a median 16 points over the next six months. In the 24 other selloffs from 1999 to 2026, it trailed by 16 points, and only one in 23 had health care ahead six months later.

Tech came close to the 8% mark last week, when the Technology Select Sector SPDR fell 7.7% in the five trading days to October 16. By the October 19 close, that five-day drop had eased to 5.3%.

For health care to keep leading, tech has to stumble on profits, not just on price.

This chart comes from a new Silvia Insights research report. Members received the full analysis earlier this week, including the actionable trade ideas, risks and what comes next.

Research is for informational purposes and does not constitute personalized investment advice.

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